Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.811876 0.944622 1.091752 1.266862 1.469558 1.696786 1.970852
2025-02-02 0.629198 0.816338 1.046612 1.350541 1.740994 2.225690 2.873249
2025-02-09 0.517449 0.725155 1.000313 1.390948 1.930914 2.650837 3.683963
2025-02-16 0.435960 0.650668 0.952750 1.407844 2.075471 3.018655 4.452848
2025-02-23 0.371885 0.586217 0.903915 1.407779 2.185940 3.341549 5.188603
2025-03-02 0.319434 0.528876 0.854204 1.394498 2.268193 3.624844 5.891912
2025-03-09 0.280241 0.485294 0.817713 1.393494 2.364420 3.934463 6.666436
2025-03-16 0.239311 0.432202 0.757652 1.343942 2.371999 4.098435 7.217799
2025-03-23 0.228230 0.428363 0.778607 1.432632 2.621128 4.686954 8.549805
2025-03-30 0.199358 0.388368 0.731046 1.393524 2.639546 4.878458 9.205546
2025-04-06 0.173919 0.351064 0.683236 1.346974 2.636937 5.029087 9.799664
2025-04-13 0.152813 0.319123 0.641180 1.305337 2.637080 5.182064 10.411327
2025-04-20 0.141304 0.305257 0.633095 1.330744 2.773782 5.615017 11.628685
2025-04-27 0.137134 0.306084 0.654511 1.418736 3.047416 6.347451 13.533880
2025-05-04 0.128877 0.296964 0.654200 1.461156 3.231604 6.920244 15.178074
2025-05-11 0.119350 0.283652 0.643195 1.478891 3.364754 7.401282 16.682898
2025-05-18 0.109490 0.268153 0.625329 1.478823 3.458086 7.806522 18.067275
2025-05-25 0.099723 0.251489 0.602703 1.464882 3.518034 8.144680 19.339672
2025-06-01 0.091875 0.238363 0.586536 1.463828 3.607203 8.556873 20.827334
2025-06-08 0.081743 0.218138 0.551034 1.411815 3.568972 8.672762 21.632618
2025-06-15 0.080906 0.221575 0.573373 1.504910 3.894481 9.675327 24.680952
2025-06-22 0.072906 0.205078 0.544042 1.463860 3.880739 9.863038 25.747030
2025-06-29 0.065372 0.188787 0.513208 1.414997 3.841022 9.982236 26.653819